IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON YIELDS OF WHEAT IN ETHIOPIA: AN AUGMENTED COBB-DOUGLAS PRODUCTION FUNCTION APPROACH
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Published:
Jun 15, 2022
Keywords:
Climate Change, Wheat Yield, Cobb-Douglas Functional Model, Ethiopia.
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Abstract
The study analyzed the impact of climate change on yields of wheat crop in Ethiopia by employing Cobb-Douglas Production Function Approach using time series data for the period 1981 – 2018. The study confirmed that long-season rainfall and crop growing season maximum temperature have negative and significant effects on wheat yield. The result implies that a rise in maximum temperature during crop growing period and variation in long-season rainfall could have adverse impact on yield of wheat crop. The findings further showed that fertilizers, improved seed, and irrigation applied on wheat crop have all positive and significant impact on yield of wheat, implying that use of fertilizer, improved seed and irrigation inputs have vital role in increasing yields of wheat crop. Conversely, the study indicated that land area cultivated under wheat cropping showed negative and significant impact on yield of wheat crop, implying that any area expansion under wheat crop production would have negative impact. In view of the findings of the study, it is recommended that adaptation strategies that could offset the adverse effects of climate change should be designed and adopted. An increased use of irrigation is recommended, particularly in potential lowland areas to mitigate the adverse effect of climate sensitivity on wheat crop. Use of improved wheat seed varieties of short duration and tolerant to warm and moisture stress conditions are recommended to increase productivity and production of wheat crop. Increased use of fertilizers in cooler mid and highland areas can be another option to increase the productivity of wheat crop in Ethiopia.
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References
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CSA, 2018; Report on area and production of major crops; Agricultural Sample Survey 2017/18, Addis Ababa.
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Deressa, T.T. and R. M. Hassan, 2009; Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in Ethiopia: Evidence from Cross-section Measures, JOURNAL OF AFRICAN ECONOMIES, Vol. 18 (4), PP 529–554.
Deressa, T., 2007. Measuring the economic impact of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture: Ricardian Approach, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 4342, World Bank, Washington DC.
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Dickey, D. A. and W.A. Fuller, 1979; Distributions of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Journal of American Statistical Association, Vol. 74: pp 427- 431.
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Mendelsohn, R., W. D. Nordhaus, and D. Shaw, 1994; The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Approach. American Economic Review, Vol. 84, pp 753-771.
MoA, 2012; Ministry of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Regulatory Directorate, Crop Variety Register, Issue No. 15. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Mohammed, Y. et al, 2018; Variability and trends of rainfall extreme events in north east highlands of Ethiopia. International Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 2(5): pp 594‒605.
NMA (National Meteorology Agency), 1996; Climatic and Agroclimatic Resources of Ethiopia. National Meteorology Service Agency of Ethiopia, Vol. 1 (1), pp 137.
Phillips, P.C. and P. Perron, 1988; Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, Vol. 75(2), pp 335-46.
Roy, T. D. and K. K. Das, 2013; Temperature Trends at Four Stations of Assam during the period 1981-2010, International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, Vol. 3(6), pp 1 – 3.
Sharma, S. and S. Singh, 2019; The Validity of Wagner’s Law in India: A Post-liberalisation Analysis, M.J.P. Rohilkhand University, Uttar Pradesh, India.
Shumetie, A. et al, 2017; Impact of Climate Variability on Cool Weather Crop Yield in Ethiopia, International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development (IJAMAD), Available online on: www.ijamad.iaurasht.ac.ir
Singh, R. and S. Singh, 2005; Wheat yield variability in relation with weather parameters, Department of Agricultural Meteorology, CCS Haryana Agricultural University, available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322223081.
Singh, R. et al, 2017; Impact of Rainfall and Temperature on the Yield of Major Crops in Gujarat State of India: A Panel Data Analysis (1980-2011), Journal of Applied Science and Technology, Vol. 24(5): pp 1-9.
Sujitha, E. and K. Shanmugasundaram, 2017; Analysis of dry/wet conditions using the Standardized Precipitation Index and its potential usefulness for drought /flood monitoring in the regions of Trichy, Journal of Pharmacognosy and Phytochemistry; Vol. 6(4): pp 452-457.
Tabari, H. and P. H. Talaee, 2011; Recent trends of mean maximum and minimum air temperatures in the western half of Iran, Meteorol Atmos Phys, Vol. 111: pp 121–131.
Tadesse, W., Z. Bishaw and S. Assefa, 2018; Wheat production and breeding in Sub-Saharan Africa: Challenges and opportunities in the face of climate change, International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, Vol. 11 (5), pp 696-715.
Tasnim, Z., A.G. Hafeez and S. Majumder, 2015; Climate Change and Wheat Production in Drought Prone Areas of Bangladesh: A Technical Efficiency Analysis, Journal of Agricultural Science; Vol. 7(1); pp 43 – 53.
Taye, M., F. Zewdu and D. Ayalew, 2013; Characterizing the climate system of Western Amhara, Ethiopia: A GIS approach, American Journal of Research Communication, Vol. 1(10): pp 319-355.
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Warwade, P., N. Sharma, B. Ahrens and A. Pandey, 2015; Characterization and analysis of the trend of climate variable (temperatures) for the North Eastern Region of India, International Journal of Recent Scientific Research Research, Vol. 6(4): pp.3618-3624.
Watson, T. T. 1995; Impact, Adaptation and Mitigation of climate change, Climate change 1995, Scientific Group 11 to the second assessment report of the IPCC, Cambridge Uni. Press U.K. pp.876.
Yibrah, M., D. Korecha and T. Dandesa (2018); Characterization of Rainfall and Temperature Variability to Guide Wheat (Triticum Aestivum) and Barley (Horduem Vulgare) Production in Enderta District, Southeastern Tigray, Ethiopia, International Journal of Research in Environmental Science Vol. 4 (2), pp 35-41.
Zahid, K. B., 2016; Climate Change, Farm Efficiency and Food Security in Punjab, Pakistan: Evidence from Household-Level Panel Data, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, Pakistan.
Afzal, M. et al, 2016; Empirical Assessment of Climate Change on Major Agricultural Crops of Punjab, Pakistan, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, available at: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/70958/
Ajay, K., and S. Pritee, 2013; Impact of climate variation on agricultural productivity and food security in Rural India. Discussion Paper No. 2013-43. http://www.economicsejournal.org/ economics /discussionpapers/
Akinsanola, A. A. and K. O.Ogunjobi, 2014; Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Variability Over Nigeria, Global Journal of Human-Social Science, Vol. 14 (3).
Arragaw, A. and B. Woldeamlak, 2017; Local spatio-temporal variability and trends in rainfall and temperature in the central highlands of Ethiopia, Geogr. Ann. Phys. Geogr, Available at https://doi.org/10.1080/04353676.2017.1289460.
Birthal, B.S. et al, 2014; Impact of Climate Change on Yields of Major Food Crops in India: Implications for Food Security, Agricultural Economics Research Review, Vol. 27 (2); pp 145-155.
Chen, C. et al, 2004; Yield variability as influenced by climate: A statistical investigation. Climate Change Vol. 66: pp 239-261.
CSA, 2018; Report on area and production of major crops; Agricultural Sample Survey 2017/18, Addis Ababa.
Dagne, G. B., 2018; Climate Change and Variability: Smallholder Farmers’ Perceptions and Indigenous Adaptation Responses in Sekota Woreda, Amhara Region, Northeast Ethiopia, Unpublished MSc Dissertation, Addis Ababa University.
Dandesa, T., D. Korecha, L. Nigatu and B. R. Cheneka, 2017; Assessment of Climatic Variability and Development of Localized Climate Prediction Method for Livestock Production in Borana Area of Ethiopia; Environ Sci Ind J. Vol.13(3): pp 1 - 30.
Deressa, T.T. and R. M. Hassan, 2009; Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in Ethiopia: Evidence from Cross-section Measures, JOURNAL OF AFRICAN ECONOMIES, Vol. 18 (4), PP 529–554.
Deressa, T., 2007. Measuring the economic impact of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture: Ricardian Approach, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 4342, World Bank, Washington DC.
Dessie, A. 2018; Cereal Crops Research Achievements and Challenges in Ethiopia, International Journal of Research Studies in Agricultural Sciences, Vol. 4 (6), PP 23-29.
Dickey, D. A. and W.A. Fuller, 1979; Distributions of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Journal of American Statistical Association, Vol. 74: pp 427- 431.
Dushko, J., L. Darko and K. Cane, 2011; Cobb-Douglas production function revisited, VAR and VECM analysis and a note on Fischer/Cobb-Douglass paradox, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, available at: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/33576/.
Eshetu, G., T. Johansson and W. Garedew, 2016; Rainfall trend and variability analysis in Setema-Gatira area of Jimma, Southwestern Ethiopia; African Journal of Agricultural Research, Vol. 11(32), pp 3037-3045.
FAO, 2014; Food balance Sheets, Rome, Italy.
Gari, A. T, M. Getnet, and L. Nigatu, 2019; Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Bread Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) Production in Central Highlands of Ethiopia,. J Agri Sci Food Res. Vol. 10:256; doi: 10.35248/2593-9173.19.10.256.
Gebrechorkos, S.H., S. Hulsmann and C. Bemofer, 2018; Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania. Int J Climatol Vol. 39: pp 18–30.
Gujrati, D. 2004; Basic Econometrics, fourth edition. The McGraw-Hill, New York, USA.
Hailekiros, T., B. Gebremedhin and T. Tadesse, 2018; Opportunities and Constraints in Wheat Input-Output Markets: Empirical Study from Tigray, Northern Ethiopia, Journal of the Drlylands, Vol. 8(2): pp 823-833.
Hailu, G. 1991; Wheat productions and research in Ethiopia, Institute of Agricultural Research, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Huntingford, C. et al.2005; Aspects of climate change prediction relevant to crop productivity. Philo Trans Royal Soc Biol Sci. Vol. 360: pp 1999-2009.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on climate Change; In R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.), Geneva, Switzerland.
Jones, P.D. 1988; Hemispheric surface air temperature variations: Recent trends and an update to 1987. Journal of Climate Vol. 1: pp 654- 660.
Just, R. E. and R. L. Pope, 1979; Production function estimation and related risk considerations, American Journal of Agriculture Economics Vol. 61: pp 276-284.
Library of Congress, 2005; Country Profile: Ethiopia, Library of Congress – Federal Research Division.
McCarl, B. A. et al., 2008; Climate Change and future analysis: is stationarity dying? Am. J. Agric. Econ. Vol. 90, pp 1241–1247.
McKee, T.B., N.J. Doesken, and D. Kleist, 1993; The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scale. In: Proceedings of the Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, California, American Meteorol. Society, pp. 179-184.
Mendelsohn, R., W. D. Nordhaus, and D. Shaw, 1994; The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Approach. American Economic Review, Vol. 84, pp 753-771.
MoA, 2012; Ministry of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Regulatory Directorate, Crop Variety Register, Issue No. 15. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Mohammed, Y. et al, 2018; Variability and trends of rainfall extreme events in north east highlands of Ethiopia. International Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 2(5): pp 594‒605.
NMA (National Meteorology Agency), 1996; Climatic and Agroclimatic Resources of Ethiopia. National Meteorology Service Agency of Ethiopia, Vol. 1 (1), pp 137.
Phillips, P.C. and P. Perron, 1988; Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, Vol. 75(2), pp 335-46.
Roy, T. D. and K. K. Das, 2013; Temperature Trends at Four Stations of Assam during the period 1981-2010, International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, Vol. 3(6), pp 1 – 3.
Sharma, S. and S. Singh, 2019; The Validity of Wagner’s Law in India: A Post-liberalisation Analysis, M.J.P. Rohilkhand University, Uttar Pradesh, India.
Shumetie, A. et al, 2017; Impact of Climate Variability on Cool Weather Crop Yield in Ethiopia, International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development (IJAMAD), Available online on: www.ijamad.iaurasht.ac.ir
Singh, R. and S. Singh, 2005; Wheat yield variability in relation with weather parameters, Department of Agricultural Meteorology, CCS Haryana Agricultural University, available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322223081.
Singh, R. et al, 2017; Impact of Rainfall and Temperature on the Yield of Major Crops in Gujarat State of India: A Panel Data Analysis (1980-2011), Journal of Applied Science and Technology, Vol. 24(5): pp 1-9.
Sujitha, E. and K. Shanmugasundaram, 2017; Analysis of dry/wet conditions using the Standardized Precipitation Index and its potential usefulness for drought /flood monitoring in the regions of Trichy, Journal of Pharmacognosy and Phytochemistry; Vol. 6(4): pp 452-457.
Tabari, H. and P. H. Talaee, 2011; Recent trends of mean maximum and minimum air temperatures in the western half of Iran, Meteorol Atmos Phys, Vol. 111: pp 121–131.
Tadesse, W., Z. Bishaw and S. Assefa, 2018; Wheat production and breeding in Sub-Saharan Africa: Challenges and opportunities in the face of climate change, International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, Vol. 11 (5), pp 696-715.
Tasnim, Z., A.G. Hafeez and S. Majumder, 2015; Climate Change and Wheat Production in Drought Prone Areas of Bangladesh: A Technical Efficiency Analysis, Journal of Agricultural Science; Vol. 7(1); pp 43 – 53.
Taye, M., F. Zewdu and D. Ayalew, 2013; Characterizing the climate system of Western Amhara, Ethiopia: A GIS approach, American Journal of Research Communication, Vol. 1(10): pp 319-355.
UN (United Nations), 2020; Ethiopia Population 2020, UN World Population Prospects (2019 Revision), available at: https://worlpopulationreview.com.
Warwade, P., N. Sharma, B. Ahrens and A. Pandey, 2015; Characterization and analysis of the trend of climate variable (temperatures) for the North Eastern Region of India, International Journal of Recent Scientific Research Research, Vol. 6(4): pp.3618-3624.
Watson, T. T. 1995; Impact, Adaptation and Mitigation of climate change, Climate change 1995, Scientific Group 11 to the second assessment report of the IPCC, Cambridge Uni. Press U.K. pp.876.
Yibrah, M., D. Korecha and T. Dandesa (2018); Characterization of Rainfall and Temperature Variability to Guide Wheat (Triticum Aestivum) and Barley (Horduem Vulgare) Production in Enderta District, Southeastern Tigray, Ethiopia, International Journal of Research in Environmental Science Vol. 4 (2), pp 35-41.
Zahid, K. B., 2016; Climate Change, Farm Efficiency and Food Security in Punjab, Pakistan: Evidence from Household-Level Panel Data, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, Pakistan.