MODELING FACTORS INFLUENCING BARLEY YIELD IN ETHIOPIA: AUGMENTED COBB-DOUGLAS PRODUCTION FUNCTION APPROACH

Апстракт

Barley production in Ethiopia is constrained by climatic and non-climatic factors. The objective of this study was to examine the influence of climate change and non-climatic inputs on barley yield in Ethiopia. The study employed an augmented Cobb-Douglas production function approach to model factors influencing barley yield in the country. The results revealed that short/belg-season rainfall and temperature variables showed positive relationship with barley yield, having minimal positive impact on yield of barley. The positive elasticity of short/belg-season rainfall is justified by the fact that short duration barley crops are grown in the highlands of Bale, North Central Shewa, and Wollo zones contributing less than 10% of total grain production.Conversely, long/main-season rainfall showed negative impact on yield of barley, which due to extreme rain events such as high rainfall above optimum requirement of the crop as well as scarcity of rainfall in some pocket areas. The result infers that cultivation of barley in Ethiopia moderately depends on rainfall. Among the non-climatic variables, irrigated land area under barley cultivation, fertilizer quantity used, and improved barley seed used had positive impact on barley yield. Fertilizer and improved seed inputs had positive and significant impact on barley yield. The result implies that barley yield is highly responsive to use of fertilizer and improved barley seed inputs and moderately responsive to irrigation input. Conversely, land area cultivated under barley crop had negative impact on barley yield, although not significant.